Tuesday, September 21, 2004
(9:41 AM) | Adam Kotsko:
Lowered Expectations in Iraq
From Krugman the Shrill:But if the chance to install a pro-American government has been lost, what's the alternative? Scaling back our aims. This means accepting the fact that an Iraqi leader, to have legitimacy, must be able to deliver an end to America's military presence. Unless we want this war to go on forever, we will have to abandon the 14 "enduring bases" the Bush administration has been building.Wouldn't "an Iraq that isn't an American ally, but isn't a threat either" be an accurate description of the Iraq we were faced with before the war as well? I realize that Saddam was a terrible dictator, but was getting rid of him really worth killing at least 12800 Iraqis? Was that really a net gain? If Saddam would have killed that many people in that short a time, or if he would have maimed as many people as our fucking cowardly bombing campaigns have maimed, or if he would have destroyed as many homes as we have destroyed or decimated his own country's utilities and infrastructure, and if he would have turned his country into a breeding ground for terrorists -- then I can see regarding this war as a net gain. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think that any of those things were at all likely.
It also means accepting the likelihood that Iraq will not have a strong central government - and that local leaders will end up with a lot of autonomy. This doesn't have to mean creating havens for hostile forces: remember that for a year after Saddam's fall, moderate Shiite clerics effectively governed large areas of Iraq and kept them relatively peaceful. It was the continuing irritant of the U.S. occupation that empowered radicals like Moktada al-Sadr.
The point is that by winding down America's military presence, while promising aid to those who don't harbor anti-American terrorists and retaliation against those who do, the U.S. can probably leave behind an Iraq that isn't an American ally, but isn't a threat either. And that, at this point, is probably the best we can hope for.
