Sunday, November 04, 2007
(1:03 AM) | Brad:
Week Nine Football Blogging
You will not believe, and why should you, but I actually did pretty well in my picks last week. Of course, I didn't do well in the ones I published here. But, all in all, I was 9-4 -- and should've been 10-3, where it not for a weird brain-fart that kept me from picking Indy to cover the spread against Carolina. (It helped, too, that in my official Pick 'Em picks, I took the Patriots; whereas here I had the temerity to suggest the 'Skins defense had a chance against them.)The only thing we know so far is that it is stupid to pick against either Indy or the Pats. Everything else is almost completely at random. And, of course, this week's epic game makes things all the more difficult. But, we'll give a try, eh?
(1) My first upset pick of the week is Denver (+3) in Detroit. It's really hard to make this pick since I dislike Denver so much. But, I think (a) Detroit is bound to lose a game they're expected to win, and (b) Denver will surprise us all, as they did two weeks ago on Sunday night, and bounce back from their humiliation at home against Green Bay. Kevin Jones is the obvious X-factor here -- though putting your hope in Kevin Jones is on par with trusting your wife's affirmative grimace to the question, "Was it good for you?"
(2) I really do not understand why Vegas is giving one point to Buffalo AT HOME against Cincinnati. The same Bengals who have not won in Buffalo during the regular season since 1985? The real bet to be made here is whether a loss this week finally loses Marvin Lewis his job. I'll say no, but I think more than few resumes will be secretly requested.
(3) I've had some reasonable luck picking against Pittsburgh, so I'm going to try again this week. I'm leery, if only because they're at home, as a general rule you should never bet against them up there. But, this is a do or die game for Baltimore. I think they stink, but I'm pretty sure they think otherwise. At least enough to take the 9.5 points Vegas is giving them. Between Matt Stover and their defense, surely they can cover against a divisional team.
(4) One of the favorites I'm taking this week is Kansas City (-2.5) at home against Green Bay. The Chiefs have a legit defense, and a halfway decent offense. Surely that's got to be enough to hang with a NFC powerhouse w/out a running game.
(5) And last, of course, there's the Patriots-Colts game. I'll offer no commentary here. Both teams can definitely win this game, no question. If you care about salvaging a competitive season of NFL football, you want the Colts to win. Too bad I don't, and would like nothing more than to see the Pats win and cover (-5). So, I'm breaking one of the rules and I'm picking based on desire. It's as good a criteria as any with this game.
