Thursday, January 26, 2006
(9:49 AM) | Old - Doug Johnson:
Iran, Three Scenarios
[originally concieved in more detail; not-quite-three year old is registering temperatures around 105 F./40 C.]I know that others have already weighed in on this topic, but ...
Given a) This administration doesn't believe in sanctions-inspections only strategies b) Rummy's brilliant smart and light military philosophy means that a ground war is out of the question c) Wait and see would be totally uncharacteristic of U.S. and Israel d) Iran has undoubtedly learned from North Korea's example; I offer the following three scenarios:
Scenario 1: Special Deliveries from Columbine to Tehran with Love.
A month or more of devestating air bombings. Many civilian deaths since U.S. will not leave anything to chance (may be less severe if Israel's intelligence is as damn good as it often is).
Scenario 2: Strategic Iranian Backtrack
Given d) above, Iran backs off, appears to fully cooperate; program goes underground again and is undetectable; another standoff down the road, then another, until they are able to test and announce. Given d), U.S. may still push for Scen. 1.
Scenario 3: Bring it on Assholes
Iran tests and announces. This scenario would mean the program is way further ahead than previously assumed. U.S.-Israel in a world of hurt. Perhaps a threat of nuclear pre-emption.
