Wednesday, January 16, 2008
(3:11 PM) | Adam Kotsko:
Mitt Romney
I have probably been unduly influenced by Yglesias on this matter, but I tend to think that Mitt Romney is the "least bad" Republican in the race. In fact, my faux-advocacy of Romney has lately been more passionate than my advocacy of any Democrat, now that Edwards seems to be in decline -- if I can't have Edwards, either Hillary or Obama will do.The media's love affair with McCain obscures the fact that, as things stand, Romney is the most likely to get the nomination. The media has painted Michigan as Romney's last stand. Yet going into that primary, he already had a commanding lead in terms of delegates, because he had consistently come in at least second place. As long as he keeps that up and as long as no other individual starts sweeping first-place finishes, he'll easily win the nomination as everyone's second choice. Even in the near-term, this trend is incredibly obvious. Romney is very unlikely to win either South Carolina or Nevada, and so the media will likely declare his momentary surge over -- but he is in second in both states, and two different people are in first: Huckabee and Giuliani, respectively. So the whole thing is a net gain for Romney.
The problem with verifying my theory is that the extant polls are pretty old. And of course, to keep looking viable enough to come in second place consistently, he'd have to get first place at least every so often -- a tall order for such an obviously loathsome and fake person. But he's come this far!
The depressing thing here is that if I'm right, we're likely to face a contest between Hillary and Romney -- a triumph of nihilism if ever there was one. Hillary would likely beat him handily, but at the very least, we'd be guaranteed a pandering technocrat, which would be a refreshing change of pace after 8 years of a messianic bumbler backed by an evil genius.
